El Niño has been consolidated in the country since November. Regarding its possible intensity and duration there is greater certainty that it will not be an intense as in 2015, its magnitude could be weak or moderate, and it’s possible it lasts until mid 2019, according to the projections of the National Meteorological Institute (IMN) that highlight that January might be one of the windiest months of 2019.
The phenomenon or climate event is directly related to the warming of the equatorial eastern Pacific, which is erratically cyclical. The phenomenon causes disasters in the inter-tropical and equatorial zone due to heavy rains.
In the Pacific Slope, the initial phases of El Niño occur when the dry season begins in this region, so the typical drought will reinforce what normally occurs between November and March. Temperatures will be hotter than normal: on average they will increase between 0.5 °C and 1.0 °C in the Central Valley, the Central and South Pacific, and between 1.0 °C and 2.0 °C in the North Pacific.
In the western North Zone there will be 25% to 35% less rain than the average, as well as an increase in temperature, while in the Caribbean Slope, 10% to 25% less rain than normal is expected, as well as an average temperature increase of up to 0.5 ° C. January could also be rainier than normal.
In these months the wind factor becomes very important, since it is the season in which it is most intense. The climatic model indicates that wind speed could be lower than normal, except in January which would be the windiest month of the season.
The season of cold fronts began in November and will end in March. On average, 11 fronts manage to get to the Caribbean Sea, of which only two reach the country. December and January are the months with the highest frequency of cold fronts.