According to the Report on the State of the Nation 2016, the country’s growth in the last five years was strongly driven by consumption, investment and public expenditure.
On average, from 2010 to 2015, 76% of the growth in domestic production was the result of improvements in domestic demand.
In the last five years, exports of goods and services accounted for less than 24% of total growth. The moderate growth of the economy is reflected in the results of most productive activities.
According to data of the State of the Nation, the agricultural and real estate sectors, as well as the manufacturing and public administration, reported lower variation than in 2014.
The agrocultural sector recorded the most severe decrease of the last ten years (-3.9%) due to climatic factors associated with El Niño phenomenon.
The manufacturing industry has shown a declining trend since its recovery after the crisis of 2008-2009.
However, the financial and insurance activities had a growth of 10%, a value that remains below pre-crisis period figures.
In addition, information and communication services, transportation, construction and professional, technical and scientific activities achieved rates above 5% in 2015. In these cases, the recovery could be due to an improvement in employers’ expectations of performance of the economy.
Furthermore, although they have been positioning themselves as one of the most important sectors in the GDP, the services generate smaller variations in the economic cycle.
The moderate GDP growth, observed in recent years, coincides with the global context of economic slowdown. According to the projections of the International Monetary Fund, world growth in 2015 would have increased from 2.4% to 3.1%, and a slight improvement is expected for 2016.
In addition, the recent recovery is also related to back-office, business services (accounting, finance, call centers, customer service, research, etc.).
According to projections of the Central Bank in 2016, the economy will expand 4.3%, near the average of the last fourteen years.
However, according to the State of the Nation, authorities must be careful with it, since it may be influenced by improvements related to periods of low performance, which is measured by the annual variation rate.